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Updated Paper: Against the Total Evidence Requirement

April 3, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

I just updated my Papers page with a revised version of a paper arguing Against the Total Evidence Requirement. Here’s the abstract.

ABSTRACT. The Requirement of Total Evidence (RTE) asks an agent to make her confidence in a belief proportional to the support it receives from her total evidence. This paper examines (RTE) as a norm of epistemic rationality and argues that it is problematic. Looking at the work of Peter Achinstein (2001) on the notion of evidence it becomes clear that (RTE) endorses a view of the constitution of evidence that is neither necessary nor sufficient for something to count as evidence. To overcome this and other deficiencies associated with (RTE) a move is made to an objective view of evidence. This move aligns epistemic rationality with scientific rationality in seeking to capture veridical evidence. It also leads to a new norm of epistemic rationality—the Proper Subset Evidence Requirement (PSER).

Click on the following link to access a presentation on the paper.

2010 Episteme Conference

April 1, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

Registration is now open for the Episteme conference in Edinburgh (6/2-6/4). Access the conference website here, and access a draft of the conference program here. The program itinerary is very helpful because it provides not only the title of the talks but also the abstracts of the papers the talks are based on.

Epistemology @ Pacific APA

March 29, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

Over at the Certain Doubts blog Clayton Littlejohn has provided a list of epistemology events at the APA Pacific. Access this list by clicking here.

   There are additional symposia on Friday that may interest epistemologists. The first is the Judith Jarvis Thomson session on her book Normativity. Other events of interest are the “Experimental Philosophy” symposium and ”The Use of Intuitions in Philosophy” symposium. Details about these events are listed below.

Friday Morning, April 2
VI-A. Author-Meets-Critics: Judith Jarvis Thomson, Normativity
9:00-Noon
   Chair: Niko Kolodny (University of California–Berkeley)
   Critics: Gilbert Harman (Princeton University)
   Thomas Scanlon (Harvard University)
   R. Jay Wallace (University of California–Berkeley)
   Author: Judith Jarvis Thomson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

VI-C. Invited Symposium: Experimental Philosophy
9:00-Noon
   Chair: Ryan Nichols (California State University–Fullerton)
   Speakers: Bertram F. Malle (Brown University)
   Ron Mallon (University of Utah)
   Commentators: Anand Vaidya (San Jose State University)
   Jen Cole Wright (College of Charleston)

Friday Afternoon, April 2
VII-E. Invited Symposium: The Use of Intuitions in Philosophy
1:00-4:00 p.m.
   Chair: Krista Lawlor (Stanford University)
   Speakers: George Bealer (Yale University)
   Brian Talbot (University of Colorado–Boulder)
   Jonathan M. Weinberg (Indiana University–Bloomington)
   Commentator: Thomas Nadelhoffer (Dickinson College)

Testimony and the Game of Telephone

March 25, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

The game of telephone involves whispering a phrase in a person’s ear. That person then whispers what they thought they heard into the next person’s ear. This continues until the final person is reached. The final person says the phrase out loud. This is compared with what the first person initially whispered, often to comical effect. A lesson from the game is that successive assertions of testimony can distort the content (truth-value) of that which is asserted. Out of this game comes the following principle, which is often implicit in accounts of testimony:

(RIPD-T) The reliability of a testimonial assertion is inversely proportional to the distance of that assertion from the original testimonial assertion.

The Reliability Inversely Proportional to Distance principle (RIPD-T) accounts for the value of eye-witness testimony. If a person actually witnessed an event, then (ceteris paribus) their testimony is typically more reliable than, say, someone who heard about the event from another person. Setting aside cognitive biases and the reliability of agents according to the reliability of the senses (i.e., whether someone is hard of hearing, has poor eyesight, etc.) a problem arises.

   There are cases where the original testimony is less strong than subsequent testimony based on the original assertion. Such is the case when an event does not cognitively register, but subsequent assertions of the testimony better approximate the truth. There are historical examples where native people, upon seeing ships off the coast, either did not see the ships or did not see the ships as ships. A native person who is an eyewitness to a ship, which seeks to conquer the person’s native land, may initially report that they saw a large, sculpted floating piece of wood today. As the testimony is transmitted throughout the tribe it may be refined to a floating boat, a floating boat with people, until it reaches the Chief of the tribe and it is reported as a floating boat full of foreigners. This happens in everyday life when things are new and one does not yet possess the correct concept or language required to approximate the truth in testimony. Subsequent assertions of the testimony, especially in a dialectical context, can result in positive refinement of the assertion. This leads to a principle contrary to (RIPD-T) called the Reliability Proportional to Distance principle:

(RPD-T) The reliability of a testimonial assertion is proportional to the distance of that assertion from the original testimonial assertion.

The (RPD-T) principle holds that testimony becomes reliable in proportion to its distance from the original assertion. I mention these principles to bring out a point about evidence.

   Testimony is often regarded as evidence, or as a source of evidence. Legal contexts assume (RIPD-T). In addition, philosophical accounts of testimony, like Robert Audi’s, associate testimony with non-inferential knowledge. One way to support such an account is by using an (RIPD) principle, namely, the closer you get to an experience, unimpeded by inferences that can go astray (probabilistically), the more veridical the testimony. Some accounts of evidence (like an account endorsed by Clayton Littlejohn here and in other places) is that p is part of your evidence-set if you non-inferentially know p. I wonder if these accounts of evidence implicitly endorse something like (RIPD) with regard to the strength of evidence. If so, the following principle is possible:

(RIPD-E) The strength of a piece of evidence is inversely proportional to the distance of that evidence from the experience (fact) that grounds that evidence.

Again, this seems to work in a legal context. If the fact is the evidence, as in the case of physical evidence presented in court, then that evidence is regarded (ceteris paribus) as stronger than a report about the physical evidence, which can leave out details and otherwise distort characterization of the evidence. But, an (RPD) principle is possible to formulate, even in a legal context. A jury may not know what they are looking at or what is relevant about a piece of physical evidence until it is explained. However, that explanation about the evidence may involve an interpretation of the evidence. Some interpretations of the evidence and its relevance to the guilt of the defendant may be more accurate than others. It is possible that given enough subsequent refinements of reports on the evidence, perhaps refinements that fill out the factual details, that the evidence becomes stronger in the eyes of the jury. In such a case, an evidence-specific (RPD) principle is possible:

(RPD-E) The reliability of a piece of evidence is proportional to the distance of that evidence (or propositional report on the evidence) from the original physical evidence, experience, event, or evidential proposition.

The proportional and inversely proportional principles pull in opposite directions. Philosophers whose account of testimony or evidence implicitly assume (RIPD) need to hang up the telephone (couldn’t resist) and sort out how an (RPD)-type principle can be explained away, undercut, or otherwise discharged. Otherwise, it seems reasonable to disconnect veridicality from closeness to the original bit of testimony or evidence.

St. Andrews/Rutgers – Evidence Conference

March 23, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

I’m pleased to provide this pointer to the Evidence Conference May 29 – May 30, 2010. This marks a new partnership between St. Andrews and Rutgers. This is the start of many great events to come.

Looking at the lineup, hopefully the talks on Saturday target the concept of ’evidence’. The topics relate to evidence, but they are more meta-topics that range over evidence. I’m sure Neta, Goldman, and Siegel will target ‘evidence’ as they discuss, for example, higher-order reasons, reliabilism and evidentialism, and cognitive penetration. Either way, this should be a great conference. You can apply to attend the conference from the conference website. Unfortunately, I’m unable to attend the conference, but the conference organizer (Yuri Cath) mentioned here that there might be audio from the conference. I will keep you informed if a link to the audio surfaces.

Midwest Epistemology Workshop Schedule

March 16, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

You can checkout the schedule for the Midwest Epistemology Workshop by clicking here. Looks to be a great line-up. Also, Jason Stanley is the keynote speaker. I like that the workshop’s format involves a 40 minute presentation followed by 40 minutes of discussion. Sometimes, understandably, the discussion is just getting good when it must be shutdown due to time. This is a great opportunity to learn from some adept practitioners of epistemology.

Papers Online for Conference @ CU Boulder

March 10, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

The papers are now up for the 2010 Rocky Mountain Philosophy Conference.

Disclaimer: Reading my paper listed on the site provides a good overview of the total evidence requirement, but I’ve tightened and refined my argument against the requirement. I’m now arguing for an objective requirement on epistemic rationality, which does not require factoring subjective and epistemic situation evidence into determining what it is reasonable to believe about a proposition. Though such evidence is still part of the body of total evidence, only a proper subset of evidence (i.e., potential and veridical evidence) should carry the day in determining what it is reasonable to believe about a proposition and to what degree.

Epistemology Conference in Brazil

March 8, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

If you’re interested in some hot epistemology below the equator I recommend attending the conference in Porto Alegre, June 9th – 11th. The lineup looks to be amazing: 

Jonathan Adler (Brooklyn College, CUNY)
Heather Battaly (CSU, Fullerton)
Anthony Brueckner (UCSB)
David Christensen (Brown)
Stewart Cohen (Arizona)
Claudio de Almeida (PUCRS)
Paulo Faria (UFRGS)
Richard Fumerton (Iowa)
Alvin Goldman (Rutgers)
Vincent Hendricks (Copenhagen)
Stephen Hetherington (UNSW)
Peter Klein (Rutgers)
Saul Kripke (CUNY)
Jennifer Lackey (Northwestern)
William Lycan (UNC, Chapel Hill)
Baron Reed (Northwestern)
Ernest Sosa (Rutgers)

For more details, click here to access the notice on the Certain Doubts website.

Evidence, Experience, and Externalism

March 6, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

In “Evidence, Experience, and Externalism” Jack Lyons proposes a new twist on the Sellarsian dilemma. This dilemma typically argues against standard foundationalism. It claims non-doxastic experiential states cannot justify basic beliefs. This is thought to count in favor of standard coherentism, which is committed to the idea that only beliefs can justify beliefs (i.e., doxasticism). Lyons recasts the Sellarsian dilemma so that it does not count in favor of coherentism (doxasticism); instead, it counts in favor of non-evidentialism and, as a result, it counts in favor of externalism. Lyons’ argument might be reconstructed as follows:

  1. Evidential justification is distinct from non-evidential justification.
    • Df: Evidential justifiers (e.g., other justified beliefs) are capable of justifying beliefs by serving as evidence for those beliefs, whereas non-evidential justifiers (e.g., reliability, coherence) are things in virtue of which  beliefs are justified (i.e., they are not evidence for the beliefs but that on which justification supervenes, for example).
  2. The Sellarsian dilemma must be restricted to evidential justification; otherwise, it is a nonstarter.
  3. The distinction between evidential and non-evidential justifiers makes it possible to hold separate the Belief Principle and the Grounds Principle.  
    • Df: The Belief Principle claims that only beliefs can evidentially justify beliefs, whereas the Grounds Principle claims that all justified beliefs have grounds (i.e., evidential justifiers).
  4. Doxasticism is the conjunction of the Belief Principle and the Grounds Principle.
  5. When the Sellarsian dilemma is restricted to evidential justification (as premise 2 indicates it must be), it is only an argument for the Belief Principle.
  6. Thus, the Sellarsian dilemma is not an argument for coherentism (doxasticism); such an argument requires an argument for the Grounds Principle, which the dilemma does not provide.
  7. However, doxasticism can be rejected on independent grounds (assumption not argued for, assumed from the literature).
  8. Rejecting doxasticism for independent reasons results in rejecting the Belief Principle and the Grounds Principle.
  9. Thus, in rejecting doxasticism, the Sellarsian argument for the Belief Principle turns out to be an argument for rejecting the Grounds Principle.
  10. Therefore, the Sellarsian argument is an argument for non-evidentialism (i.e., not all beliefs must have evidential justifiers as grounds), and beliefs can be justified by factors external to the agent (i.e., externalism is true).

In laying bare Lyons’ argument we have already accomplished something because it’s easy to get lost in the mounting of distinctions, positions, and counter-positions in his paper. For a defense of each premise I recommend reading the whole paper, but for the remainder of this post I’ll focus on one aspect of the argument. This aspect might undermine the entire argument.

Lyons responds to an objection to his argument. The objection is that he’s working with too narrow of an understanding of evidence and this begs the question against non-doxastic evidentialist theories. Notice that the argument above is restricted to a brand of doxastic evidentialism. Perhaps a different understanding of evidence, one that included, for example, physical evidence like a murder weapon, would not commit one to doxasticism. As a result, it might be possible to satisfy evidential justification without being led into the Sellarsian dilemma. Lyons responds to this charge without argument, by citing philosophical tradition. Put candidly: if you’ve got a problem with my usage of evidence, it’s their problem not mine! The people he’s referring to are Feldman and Conee, Haack, and Alston. Lyons says that it’s their conception of evidence that implies the Belief principle, and he’s merely borrowing this conception for the sake of argument. Even if we grant Lyons that his use of the notion of evidence is not question-begging against his opponents, it ‘s still problematic for his argument.

There’s solid motivation to move away from a doxastic notion of evidence. If only beliefs can serve as evidential justifiers, even for the sake of argument, then the notion of justification hinges on defending and substantiating a doxastic notion of evidence. Recently, Ram Neta (in “What Evidence Do You Have?”) has provided extensive counterexamples to a doxastic notion of evidence as cashed out in its various theoretical forms (e.g., reliability, JTB, E = K, coherence, deontology, and so on).

As it turns out, Lyons makes a double-mistake. First, he fails to argue against doxastic theories, and merely cites that the literature supports the idea that “doxasticism is a lost cause,” thereby motivating premise 7 without argument. Second, he bases his argument on doxasticism because it is a notion endorsed by mentalism and other internalist-based epistemologies. Without arguing against a non-doxastic understanding of evidence his argument is something of a straw-man. That is, he set-up an easy opponent to knock down. To sustain his argument Lyons must discharge the burden in the literature which points away from a doxastic conception of evidence in the first place, a burden that undermines the initial premises (assumptions) in his argument unless it can be discharged.

Facts and Negative Evidence

February 20, 2010
by Christopher Cloos

Facts are curious entities. They are commonly defined as either truth-makers or truth-bearers. As truth-makers they are states of affairs. As truth-bearers they are the abstract contents of beliefs (i.e., propositions).

A problem with the truth-maker view of facts is the existence of negative truths. If there always must be something that makes true that which is true, what are we to say when there is no entity in the world that makes a negative truth true? What entity “makes true” propositions like {There is no God} or {Carbon monoxide is an odorless gas}? What non-occurrence event of the existence of God makes it true that {There is no God}? Does the non-existence of the property of odor in carbon monoxide make true the proposition that {Carbon monoxide is an odorless gas}? How is lacking a property able to “make true” when the basic truth-maker principle requires there to exist at least one entity that necessitates the truth of that which it makes true? Is odorlessness an entity capable of such a task?  

This problem is relevant to the concept of evidence. The nonoccurence of events is said to provide negative evidence. Such evidence is used in inferential contexts to draw certain conclusions. Consider the Sherlock Holmes’ mystery Silver Blaze. At night someone stole the horse Silver Blaze from the stable where he was kept. A watch dog and two grooms also lived in the stable. The grooms said they heard nothing during the night. Consider the following propositions:

  • b: The dog is a watch dog that would bark if someone attempted to steal Silver Blaze, and this would wake the grooms and alert them of the intruder.
  • e: The dog did nothing during the night.
  • h: The person who stole Silver Blaze knew the dog well.

The probability of the hypothesis given the evidence and background information leads Holmes to conclude P(h|e & b) = High. The incident that allowed Holmes to conclude that h is likely was the non-occurrence of barking by the dog during the night. How does the state of affairs of non-barking (as an entity) make true (or probable) the hypothesis? If negative evidence is admissible as facts in the truth-maker sense where does this lead? Does the non-occurrence of my death (or bodily injury) while driving “make true” the proposition that {Driving is safe}? After all, the incident of non-occurrence of injury does increase the probability of the safety of driving. One problem is the scope of such commitments. Would all non-occurrence events equally “make true” propositions true? Inferentially speaking, would negative evidence, as “making true”, lead to the irrational assignment of probabilities in various hypotheses?

Imagine one dumps truth-maker theory and opts for truth-bearer theory instead. This has the upshot that propositions can be properly modeled and made to “obey” the rules of probability. Facts simply bear truth, they don’t make it. But, this leads one to wonder where the truth that propositions come to bear originates? If not in states of affairs, then is their truth a matter of mere stipulation? To be a fact is to be a true proposition. This can be stipulated as the intersection of the set of all propositions that exist in a world w and the set of all propositions that are true in w. But doesn’t the existence of physical evidence (or non-inferential evidence) tell against such a view? Why would one need to report on the evidence or duplicate the evidence in a that-clause when the evidence is before one’s eyes? This seems especially troubling when producing the evidence in court has greater probative value (e.g., think of O.J. trying on the leather glove during his trial) than a that-clause about the same evidence. If the claim is that all evidence must be rendered propositionally, then producing the evidence in court should not affect the probative value over and above the value when the evidence is propositionally presented. For instance, that {The glove doesn’t fit O.J.}, relative to certain background information, should have the same effect as O.J. trying on the glove in court and the jury seeing it doesn’t fit. Yet, perceptually viewing the material evidence in a state of affairs does seem to affect the probative value of the evidence.

For me, the jury is still out on a truth-maker versus a truth-bearer view of facts. Perhaps a hybrid view is possible. On such a view, facts might be rendered as either truth-makers or truth-bearers depending on the context of confirmation. Different contexts impose different standards of evidence.  For example, testimonial evidence carries different probative value depending on whether one is in the context of science or law. To this end, coming up with principles that guide the rendering of facts to various contexts of justification seems a worthwhile pursuit.